Trump’s Australia: why are more Australians supporting Trump?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the global gaze is once again fixed on the American political landscape. But it’s not just Americans who are tuned in; Australians are also watching closely, with a growing curiosity about the unfolding drama and one key question in mind: will Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump?  

Why does it feel like Australians are more invested in the Presidential election this time around? For starters, this election cycle is unlike any we’ve seen before, distinguished by its wild twists:  

• A president seeking a second non-consecutive term: This has only happened a handful of times, with Grover Cleveland being the only president to successfully serve non-consecutive terms.  

• Unusual cross-party endorsements: While endorsements have crossed party lines in past elections, the 2024 election has seen notable instances from prominent figures, such as Dick Cheney’s endorsement of Kamala Harris.  

• A convicted felon running as the major party nominee: While there have been third-party candidates with felony convictions, Trump’s nomination by the Republican party is unprecedented.  

• Two assassination attempts in two months: America is no stranger to assassination attempts on its major political figures, but this is the first time two such attempts have occurred within a two-month time frame. 

With all this going on, it’s no wonder Australians and folks worldwide are glued to the screen.  

But interest is one thing; support is another.  

Reports show a growing preference for Trump among Australians, leading to the intriguing phenomenon of Trump’s Australia and raising the question: does Australia support Trump? 

The latest 2024 opinion polls in Australia indicate that, if given the chance, a notable chunk of Australians would cast a vote for Trump.  

Trump signs are popping up on lawns and in windows across the country. By appearances, it seems that there’s no shortage of Donald Trump supporters in Australia. 

But is it actually accurate to say that more Australians are supporting Trump than ever before? And if so, what might be driving this trend: is it Trump’s fiery rhetoric, or are we witnessing a rise of far-right sentiments in Australia? Plus, what could a Trump victory mean for our sunny shores? 

To explore these questions, we’ve turned to polling results, insights from Australian media and the thoughts of Dr Clare Corbould and Dr Zim Nwokora from Deakin’s School of Humanities and Social Sciences, in the Faculty of Arts and Education. 

Do Australians support Donald Trump?

Yes, there’s a substantial segment of Australians who are all aboard the Trump train, as polling data shows. But while some are cheering for Trump, others are giving Harris a thumbs up, too.  

This duality suggests that while some Australians are drawn to Trump’s pointed rhetoric, others are increasingly recognising Harris’s leadership qualities.  

It also suggests that people the world over are hungry for fresh leadership, no matter the party.  

Sorry, Joe.  

What the latest 2024 opinion polls in Australia tell us

The latest opinion polls in Australia tell a clear story: attitudes toward Donald Trump have shifted in Australia since 2016 and 2020.  

A recent Guardian Essential poll shows that nearly one-third (29%) of polled Australians would vote for Trump, which is a 15% increase from November 2020 results. 

While this could be read as a surge of Trump support among Australians, it’s not all one-sided. The same poll is also showing 37% of respondents would vote for Harris if they were eligible, and a whopping 48% have a favourable opinion of Harris – way more than for Trump.  

After crunching the numbers from Talbot Mills Research, ABC Australia reported similar findings: around 27% of polled Australians would vote for Trump, while 48% are ready to back Harris.  

‘The ABC-commissioned poll produced some very interesting results that suggested that Australians are broadly in favour of a Harris presidency, by a significant margin,’ says Dr Nwokora. ‘There are quite a few interesting nuances on that poll, including the fact that while Australians obviously vary in terms of their political positions, the supporters of every political party – except for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation – would favour Harris as president.’ 

While Harris is still Australia’s clear favourite, it’s challenging to pinpoint exactly what’s driving the uptick in Trump’s support Down Under.  

One possible explanation could be the growing unease with the AUKUS agreement – a security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US focused on military cooperation. The Guardian reports that only 37% of its respondents believe AUKUS will enhance Australia’s security – a drop from 45% in September 2021.  

As confidence in this international pact wanes, some Australians might be looking to Trump’s controversial leadership style as a possible alternative.  

Do Australians think Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump? 

When it comes to whether Australians think Kamala Harris can actually beat Donald Trump, the polls don’t paint a clear picture. However, there are signs that many see Harris as a real contender, which wasn’t the case for Biden before his abrupt exit.  

‘Kamala Harris’s style is more aligned with the normative ideal of a candidate,’ says Dr Nwokora. ‘She’s extolling policy positions and presenting the electorate with choices to choose from.’ 

On the flip side, Dr Nwokora notes that ‘Trump’s style is normatively less desirable for reasons such as his willingness to parlay the truth, and willingness to engage in blatant falsehoods.’ 

So, while Harris might fit the traditional mould and seem by all accounts to be the safer and more practical choice, Dr Nwokora poses the important question: ‘Which is the winning strategy?’ 

Or in other words, will Harris beat Donald Trump? While opinions vary on Kamala Harris in Australia, it’s hard to say whether ultimately she has what it takes to beat Donald Trump.  

‘I think that’s more difficult to determine at this point because however we view Donald Trump’s communication style from a normative standpoint, it’s self-evident that he has plenty of supporters who see value in how he communicates.’ 

Why do people in Australia support Donald Trump?

When we last faced the prospect of a Trump presidency, we did a deep dive into understanding the appeal of Donald Trump. Speaking with Matthew Sharpe, a former associate professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, we boiled it down to a few key points: Trump’s knack for tapping into fear, his positioning as an American saviour and the ever-present shadow of sexism. 

While the last point was evident in Trump’s treatment of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton in 2016, it’s no less relevant today – especially given that Kamala Harris is a woman of colour, which can amplify biases in public perception.  

Dr Nwokora points out that while many Australians lean toward Harris, the number of those open to a Trump presidency isn’t something to ignore.  

‘I think that’s instructive for the Australian political system, because it suggests the potential for the right kind of populist to do well in this environment – perhaps better than we would normally expect,’ says Dr Nwokora.  

This growing attractiveness of Trump suggests a potential shift in political sentiment in Australia. Many voters appear to be on the lookout for bold leaders who resonate with their frustrations.   

Does the Australian Government support Trump?

While individual politicians may share their thoughts on Trump, opinions are often mixed and cautious, and there’s a sense of navigating a tricky diplomatic tightrope.  

So, who’s on Trump’s team, and who isn’t?  

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd didn’t hold back when he called Trump ‘the most destructive president in history.’ Rudd was by then out of office. By contrast, current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has aimed for a neutral stance, refraining from commenting on Trump’s recent court rulings and emphasising that Australia will work closely with whoever emerges victorious in the election.  

Albanese hasn’t always been Switzerland on the question of Trump. As Leader of the Opposition in the wake of the January 6 riots, he criticised then Prime Minister Scott Morrison for not condemning Trump strongly enough.  

In his 2020 memoir, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull opened up about his experience dealing with Trump, offering some candid insights. He warned that ‘if Trump returns to the White House in 2025, only the willfully deluded could imagine that a second Trump administration would be less volatile and alarming than the first.’  

In interviews, Turnbull has cautioned that leaders of allied nations would need to stand up to Trump, whom he described as a bully with a domineering personality.  

So, while the Australian government might not openly denounce Trump or show explicit Trump support, there’s a palpable recognition of the complexities involved in dealing with his potential return to power.  

It’s a balancing act that reflects Australia’s commitment to maintain strong ties with the U.S., no matter who’s in charge.  

What do Australians think of Americans and the election?

When it comes to opinions on Americans and their electoral process, there’s a certain ‘smugness among Australians’, according to Dr Corbould.  

‘I think Australians have a kind of sense that, in some respects, we do democracy better than Americans do,’ says Dr Corbould.  

Dr Corbould highlights two key examples: compulsory voting and the beloved ‘democracy sausage.’  

The latter, which involves voters grabbing a sausage sizzle while casting their ballots, has become an iconic part of the voting experience Down Under. 

‘Voting is seen as an important civic duty here, and people turn out in huge numbers,’ she says. ‘I can’t speak for all of Australia, of course, but I think that compulsory voting is a really big part of how we think about the differences between our two places.’ 

According to the Australian Electoral Commission, 17,806,361 Australians are enrolled to vote, out of an estimated 18,194,071 estimated Australians who are eligible to vote. This is an enrolment rate of around 97.9%, and 90.47% of these registered voters cast a ballot in the 2022 Australian Senate election. 

What local support of Trump means for future Australian elections

‘The United States still is the most powerful nation on Earth,’ says Dr Corbould, and it’s this dominance that is key to shaping how Australian politicians approach their relationship with Trump.  As an indispensable ally, the U.S. presence looms large, putting Aussie leaders in a delicate balancing act as they consider what a second Trump presidency could mean for Australia.  

‘Politicians have been very careful not to denounce Trump,’ adds Dr Corbould. ‘They are very mindful that they might have to work with him.’ This cautious stance becomes increasingly challenging as local Trump support appears to grow. This adds layers of complexity to Australia’s political landscape and creates a curious scenario we could refer to as Trump’s Australia, considering many would vote for him if given the chance.  

Australians often take pride in their own political stability, but as Dr Corbould warns, ‘We need always to be cautious and to caution against, or to guard against, the rise of authoritarian leadership. If it can happen there, it can happen here.’ 

This sentiment feels particularly resonant considering the recent assassination attempts against Trump, which have sparked intense debates about his safety and the political climate in the U.S.  

‘It’s a very interesting moment in terms of political violence, and its opposite, political stability,’ says Dr Nwokora. ‘We find that it occurs particularly during periods of intense polarisation, so political violence is closely related to how political elites and the people who follow them interact in the public square. When civility disappears, violence enters that vacuum.’ 

As Australia navigates its relationship with Trump and the implications of rising Trump support, we must remain vigilant. The result of this election will not only shape the future of America but is also likely to influence the future direction of Australian politics.