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Melbourne is widely known as the city that experiences four seasons in one day.
At the start of summer, that reputation rang true. The first day of December arrived with cold winds, rain and temperatures stuck in the low teens – hardly the start to summer anyone expected. Fast forward just one month, and Melbourne found itself under a heatwave warning, with temperatures soaring past 40 degrees. From cool and blustery to extreme heat in a matter of weeks, it doesn’t get more Melbourne than that.
The unpredictable weather makes it almost impossible to plan ahead.
Puffer jacket? Boots? Sandals? If you’re visiting Melbourne, we don’t blame you for being confused about what to pack.
So, why is Melbourne’s weather so unpredictable? Does climate change have anything to do with it, or is this just how Melbourne has always been?
Deakin University’s weather and climate change expert Dr Sanja Van Huet dives into the key factors behind Melbourne’s unpredictable weather.
Dr Van Huet says that Melbourne’s unique location is the key reason why its weather is so unpredictable.
‘Melbourne’s unpredictable weather is influenced by the cold Southern Ocean and Bass Strait to the south, the hot flat land masses to the north and west, and the Great Dividing Range and its associated smaller Dandenong, Mornington Peninsula and Macedon Ranges,’ she explains.
These high-elevation regions funnel, divert and concentrate weather conditions.
‘Additionally, the warmer water of Port Philip Bay also influences the Melbourne area.
The interface between cold and warm land, air and water masses lead to the unpredictable weather Melbourne is famous for.
Interestingly, Melbourne’s unpredictable weather is actually triggered by events in different locations, depending on the time of year.
‘Most of Melbourne’s more extreme weather influences come from the southwest in winter months, which are the cold front westerlies. While in summer it comes from the north, which are our northerlies, often associated with hot dry wind,’ she says.
Climate change is one of the most talked about topics when it comes to the weather and environment.
But what impact has this had on Melbourne’s weather?
Global warming has caused the ocean water’s temperature to rise, which means that the interactions between land, air and water are also changing.
This, in turn, causes extreme weather fluctuations, which can even be seen from suburb to suburb.
‘Melbourne is such a widely spread city that there are significant differences from the east to the west and north to south,’ Dr Van Huet notes.
For example, winds are becoming stronger and more concentrated in certain areas; an example is the recent tornado in Werribee. Weather doesn’t get much more unpredictable than a tornado on a random afternoon in a Melbourne suburb – but then again, it is Melbourne weather we’re talking about!
Climate change has also affected rainfall, which can cause flooding in some suburbs and just a light shower in others.
‘Certain parts of Melbourne are receiving lower or greater annual rainfall overall and others higher or lower temperatures, depending on where in Melbourne you are,’ Dr Van Huet says.
So, this goes to say that both Melbourne’s unique location and climate change shifts are contributing to the city’s unpredictable weather cycles.
As we’ve explored, climate change has contributed to the unpredictable weather in Melbourne.
So, how are these changes altering Melbourne’s annual weather patterns?
‘In general, there’s less rain overall with longer dry spells, meaning Melbourne is more likely to have an extreme rainfall event leading to local flooding,’ she explains.
Dr Van Huet also says, ‘Melbourne is experiencing higher overall annual average temperatures, more intense heat waves and an increased number of very hot days.’
In stark contrast to the increase in heat waves, we’ll likely need to rug up in our warm coats for more consecutive days in winter as weather fluctuations increase.
‘Our extreme cold snaps are likely to be more frequent too. Oscillations in our weather patterns due to ocean cooling in winter contribute to the extended cold weather we experienced in 2025,’ she says.
You’ve probably wondered what Melbourne looked like 100 years ago, but have you ever thought about what the weather was like?
‘Mean annual maximum temperatures have increased by approximately 1-degree celsius since 1917, with an increase in the number of hotter days,’ Dr Van Huet says.
While this might not seem like a lot, scientifically, it’s a big change.
Essentially, the city has become slightly drier over time. Gumboots certainly haven’t been required as much as they were in the early 1900s!
‘Mean annual rainfall has decreased, but the number of dry days in Melbourne has increased, which has meant fewer days of rainfall.’
The earth-shattering sound of thunder and lightning might send a shiver down your spine or have you hiding under the covers but, unfortunately, Melbourne’s spring storms aren’t going anywhere – they’re only getting louder.
‘The most obvious changes to Melbourne’s spring months are seen in the intensity of our spring storms. As the air temperature warms more rapidly with seasonal warming, the differences in air pressure are greater, so wind velocities also increase. Spring has always been stormy, but there has recently been an increase in the power, velocity and intensity of these winds,’ Dr Van Huet explains.
Dr Van Huet adds that if your vegetable garden has failed in winter or early spring, don’t worry – it probably wasn’t your fault!
‘Erratic temperatures during late winter have also been tricking vegetation into blooming or fruiting earlier, only to have another cold or windy snap kill or damage vegetation,’ she says.
Gardeners, environmentalists and agriculturalists have also noted that Melbourne’s unpredictable weather has caused unusual growth and flowering patterns. This variance in weather patterns, as well as the unpredictability of frost events and rainfall also mean agricultural ‘zones’ that have been under crop for generations now require changes in location.
As our weather changes, the way we continue to build on our city changes too. The City of Melbourne has a climate change strategy, but how effective is it?
Dr Van Huet says, ‘like with all government agencies, it struggles with funding and the challenge of equally important expenditure issues.’
While it has been a struggle, there are a few major projects in place.
‘An increase in green spaces and tree planting is a first step. Retrofitting poorly designed buildings, running programs to assist with climate proofing homes and public education are some of the strategies being employed.’
It is important to note that the City of Melbourne only stretches so far; many suburbs that need assistance are actually outside this municipality.
Dr Van Huet believes the Victorian Government needs to take ownership of programs in wider Melbourne.
‘The Victorian Government has Victoria’s Climate Change Strategy. This is the first in a series of five-yearly roadmaps the government will deliver to help achieve net-zero emissions and a climate resilient Victoria by 2045,’ she says.
However, reducing net emissions will not address immediate concerns in Melbourne communities, and delivers little to help communities and businesses coping with changes.
Dr Van Huet believes that despite being accustomed to Melbourne’s already unpredictable weather, the city has a lot of work to do when it comes to preparing for further climate change implications.
‘Melbourne is not prepared for impending climatic changes and serious weather events. This is additional to other events such as coastal flooding due to the increase in storm surge events and rising sea levels,’ she explains.
La Niña and El Nino are two phrases that climate change has added to our vocabulary. Will we see either of them in 2025/26?
‘Early in 2025 I would have said no, but there was some consensus that the El Nino weather patterns of 2024 would still linger. Now, even the BoM is using % probability, with the latest prediction being a 71% likelihood of a La Nina event for Victorian summer 2025–26,’ she explains.
With Melbourne’s unpredictable weather now amplified by climate change, deciding whether to grab a jacket, sunglasses or both has become more than a running joke. As global warming continues to intensify weather patterns, Melbourne’s swings between heat, cold, wind and rain are likely to become more frequent and more extreme.
Understanding what drives this unpredictability is the first step in adapting to it – because if there’s one thing Melbournians can count on, it’s that the weather will keep us guessing.
Lecturer and Research Supervisor, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University.
