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The height of the COVID-19 pandemic is a time few of us would want to revisit. But, sometimes the toughest lessons are the most important; COVID-19 exposed just how unprepared the global community was for a pandemic – and how important it would be to design safeguards in anticipation of the next one.
More than five years since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, the world’s best and brightest are working hard to make sure that the next pandemics never reaches that scale.
Catherine Bennett, Deakin Distinguished Professor and Chair in Epidemiology, tells us how.
At the height of COVID-19, the word ‘pandemic’ was on everyone’s lips. It was even Merriam-Webster’s 2020 Word of the Year (alongside Joe Biden’s favourite word, ‘malarkey’). But what is a pandemic, exactly?
‘The technical definition is met when we see more than the expected number of cases of a disease, and this occurs across continents simultaneously,’ says Bennett.
When a disease becomes a pandemic, it’s usually an entirely new pathogen – or an existing disease that has changed significantly. Because of this, we won’t have had previous exposure to pandemic diseases – and Bennett says that this is why they can be so dangerous.
‘The lack of immunity – and, initially at least, treatment or a vaccine – means it spreads at peak rate and causes more severe symptoms,’ Bennett says.
While COVID-19 is perhaps the most famous pandemic in recent memory, there have been many other, lesser-known pandemics. In the past twenty years, the world has seen SARS CoV-1, Middle eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS), swine flu, Ebola and Zika virus pandemics – and it is possible that the next pandemic might be a disease that doesn’t yet exist.
COVID-19 originated in Wuhan, China in 2019, and the virus was spread outside China by people who had been in Wuhan. The research suggests that COVID-19 was able to become a pandemic because it is a ‘zoonotic’ infection – an animal disease that becomes able to infect humans. Bennett explains:
‘Animal strains are a direct threat to humans if a human becomes infected through close contact with infected animal hosts, but they don’t usually pass this animal strain on to other humans,’ Bennett says. ‘However, if the virus mutates so it can infect humans more easily, we will have a new human pathogen, or one so different to previous human strains in the case of flu that we have little to no immunity against it. The same can happen if a person or other mammal is infected by both an animal and a human strain at the same time, viral recombination can occur with mixing of the genomes producing a new human virus that our immune systems don’t recognise.’
On January 25, 2020, the Australian government announced that COVID-19 had been detected here for the first time.
On the 18th of March 2020, with 140 total cases detected, the government declared a ‘human biosecurity emergency response’. As a result, borders were closed, quarantine measures were established and movement restrictions enforced – a positive move, according to Bennett.
‘Australia was one of a handful of countries that acted quickly to close international borders and control the [outbreak] of the virus that had already found its way into our communities,’ says Bennett. ‘This was a courageous decision that meant Australia had the opportunity to aggressively close down outbreaks to ensure periods when the community was close to virus-free. This avoided the kinds of high death rates and overwhelmed hospitals that were seen overseas.’
Australia’s response might be one reason for the relatively low mortality rate compared with many other countries. As Bennett explains, though, even Australia’s robust response could only do so much.
‘Unfortunately, border management and hotel quarantine will never be able to keep a contagious virus out completely and, like a lot of the world, our public health systems weren’t experienced in disease control at scale, or adequately resourced to manage the test, trace and isolate strategies that disease control requires.’
We’ve already seen a global outbreak of M-pox since COVID-19 and as Bennett suggests, the next pandemic might not be far away.
‘We expect pandemics to occur on average every 20 years,’ Bennett says. ‘Most recently we had COVID-19 and M-pox, so two within just five years. Of course they will not all be of the same severity; it will depend on the disease agent. The most likely source of the next pandemic will be if a new human pathogen arises from crossover between existing viruses that cause diseases like influenza or COVID and distinct strains carried in the animal population.’
While we might not be able to say when the next pandemic is expected or what the disease will be, experts are on guard, and global surveillance systems are a priority. The World Health Organisation (WHO), for instance, lists pathogens with pandemic potential, including coronaviruses, Zika virus, haemorrhagic fevers, influenza and an as-yet unknown ‘Disease X’.
Whatever form the next pandemic takes, we can at least be well prepared. As Bennett explains, one key measure is monitoring animal and human infections to identify new strains as they emerge.
‘Early warning allows us to respond quickly, before spread takes off and it turns into a pandemic,’ she says. ‘This depends on the resourcing of diagnostic and genomic testing and early warning surveillance systems, and the sharing of data. These systems were a key part of the global Pandemic Agreement signed in May this year.’
While every country will have its own views on pandemic preparedness, global cooperation will be vital to either preventing, or ensuring an effective response to, the next pandemics. As Bennett notes, though, not every nation is on the same page.
‘While Australia has committed to the Pandemic Agreement, unfortunately, not all countries have, including high risk countries like the USA that is currently experiencing extensive avian influenza outbreaks in animals, with humans infected as well.’
Here in Australia, preparations are already underway for the next pandemic. As Bennett mentioned, Australia has committed to the WHO’s global Pandemic Agreement – but there are plenty of domestic initiatives for pandemic prevention, too.
The government has committed to investing $22 million to add pandemic flu vaccines to the National Medical Stockpile. There are lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, too.
‘One of the main recommendations from the Inquiry into the Australian Government COVID-19 Response that I helped lead was the establishment of a permanent Australian Centre for Disease Control,’ Bennett says. ‘This was passed by parliament in 2025 an and come into existence on 1 January 2026. The Australian CDC will have a central role in supporting decision makers and frontline public health responses with best evidence, overseeing Australian data consistency, linking and synthesis, and as a trusted source of information for the public.’
Unfortunately, it seems that the question is when, not if, Australia and the world face the next pandemic.
With an increased focus on preparedness, and the diligent work of experts like Catherine Bennett, we should be much better equipped to face those pandemic challenges than we were for COVID-19.
Deakin Distinguished Professor and Chair in Epidemiology
Faculty of Health/School of Health and Social Development/Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University
